Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-4
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baldwin singled to center, Olson scored, Riley to second.0–10
- 8Riley singled to left, Ozuna scored, Olson to second.0–9
- 8Olson singled to center, Albies scored and Harris II scored, Ozuna to second.0–8
- 8Albies singled to center, Allen scored, Harris II to second.0–6
- 7Olson homered to right center (434 feet).0–5
- 7Ozuna homered to left center (395 feet).0–4
- 3Riley singled to right, Ozuna scored.0–3
- 3Ozuna doubled to center, Albies scored and Harris II scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 68%
- ML MIA +200 / ATL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -212
- MIA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.9 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +78 Elo | ATL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 2.029th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.615th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −2.629th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15541st of 30 |
| 26th of 301463 | Elo rating | 152110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–18 ATL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.