New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wagaman singled to right, Conine scored, Lopez to third.10–4
- 9Lopez singled to center, Pauley scored, Conine to second.10–3
- 6Wagaman homered to left center (424 feet).10–2
- 6Nimmo homered to center (412 feet), Alonso scored.10–1
- 5Torrens homered to center (398 feet), Vientos scored.8–1
- 5Alonso homered to right (400 feet), Siri scored, Marte scored and Soto scored.6–1
- 5Siri doubled to right, Acuña scored.2–1
- 3Marte homered to left center (385 feet).1–1
- 1Lopez homered to right (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML NYM -190 / MIA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 59.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- MIA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −24 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +64 Elo | NYM 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 301.7 | Runs scored | 4.015th of 30 |
| 4th of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 3.513th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.514th of 30 |
| 9th of 161–2 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 18 |
| 5th of 301529 | Opponent Elo | 147724th of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 146426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–85 | 76–85 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 45–50 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 43–35 | 74–65 |
| Overs–unders | 92–81 | 89–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 16–10 MIA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 26.