New York Mets at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Alvarez doubled to center, Paredes scored.1–2
- 6Soto grounded out to pitcher, Siri scored.1–1
- 5Peña homered to left (363 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML NYM +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −12 | NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +31 Elo | HOU 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 46–357th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NYM |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–85 | 81–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 45–50 | 51–64 |
| Underdog | 43–35 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders | 92–81 | 68–89–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–5 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.