New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting4-6, 1 RBI
- Connor GillispiePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Edwards singled to left, Sanoja scored.6–5
- 11Vientos grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Alonso scored on fielding error by shortstop Edwards, Winker to second, Nimmo to third.6–4
- 11Winker walked, Soto scored, Nimmo to second, Alonso to third.5–4
- 8Alonso homered to center (415 feet), Lindor scored and Soto scored.4–4
- 7Fortes singled to right, Lopez scored.1–4
- 7Lopez reached on infield single to third, Conine scored.1–3
- 3Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Stowers scored on throwing error by third baseman Vientos, Conine to second.1–2
- 3Mervis hit sacrifice fly to right, Edwards scored, Stowers to third.1–1
- 1Alonso doubled to center, Soto scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 66%
- ML NYM -230 / MIA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.8%, market 66.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -195
- MIA +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIA: Connor Gillispie: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +33 Elo | NYM 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 66.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.013th of 30 |
| 5th of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.315th of 30 |
| 9th of 192–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 19 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301523 | Elo rating | 146426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 17–11 MIA in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.