New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Pauley doubled to left, Bride scored and Conine scored.2–4
- 3Lindor singled to center, Acuña scored.2–2
- 2Nimmo homered to right center (388 feet).1–2
- 1Stowers homered to center (421 feet), Edwards scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML NYM -160 / MIA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 3.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +43 Elo | NYM 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.817th of 30 |
| 6th of 182–2 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 19 |
| 16th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148522nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301525 | Elo rating | 146226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–85 | 76–85 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 45–50 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 43–35 | 74–65 |
| Overs–unders | 92–81 | 89–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 17–10 MIA in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.