Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Alonso scored.0–5
- 6Nimmo doubled to right, Soto scored, Alonso to third.0–4
- 6Soto doubled to right, Lindor scored.0–3
- 1Alonso homered to right (377 feet), Lindor scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML TOR +110 / NYM -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +4 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +35 Elo | NYM 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.817th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.711th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 15246th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.