Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4
- Bowden FrancisPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Giménez hit by pitch, Heineman scored, Santander to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–2
- 3Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to left, Soto scored.0–2
- 3Alonso singled to center, Senger scored, Soto to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML TOR +125 / NYM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +48 Elo | NYM 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.917th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 2.62nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.38th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 17th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–4 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.