Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Matt MervisBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mervis homered to right center (421 feet).4–0
- 4Hicks singled to left, Hill scored.3–0
- 1Mervis homered to right (373 feet), Lopez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML MIA +215 / ATL -265
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.5%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -229
- MIA +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | −6 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 1.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +104 Elo | ATL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −1.019th of 30 |
| 21st of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15421st of 30 |
| 26th of 301460 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–19 ATL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.