Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Derek HillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Connor GillispiePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lindor hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña scored.5–10
- 6Alonso doubled to left, Acuña scored, Soto scored and Senger scored.5–9
- 6Hill homered to center (398 feet), Lopez scored.5–6
- 6Hicks grounded out to first, Conine scored, Lopez to third.3–6
- 5Marte singled to right, Alonso scored and Nimmo scored.2–6
- 5Nimmo doubled to left, Senger scored and Lindor scored, Alonso to third.2–4
- 3Alonso doubled to second, Soto scored.2–2
- 1Lindor homered to right (391 feet).2–1
- 1Hicks singled to left, Conine scored and Edwards scored, Lopez to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 71%
- ML MIA +235 / NYM -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 61.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -249
- MIA +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | MIA: Connor Gillispie: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +78 Elo | NYM 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 68.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 2.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 29 |
| 14th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148924th of 30 |
| 26th of 301462 | Elo rating | 15305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–19 NYM in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 30.