Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Call tripled to left, Bell scored.7–4
- 9Wood homered to left center (400 feet).6–4
- 8Lowe doubled to left, Call scored, Ruiz scored and García Jr. scored.5–4
- 6Bell homered to right center (395 feet), Ruiz scored.2–4
- 5Stowers doubled to right, Edwards scored and Pauley scored.0–4
- 5Edwards singled to center, Hicks scored and Sanoja scored, Pauley to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML WSH -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 49.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −13 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.621st of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 30 |
| 1st of 301529 | Opponent Elo | 150810th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Elo rating | 146426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 13–13 MIA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.