Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Matt MervisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lopez doubled to right, Wagaman scored.6–2
- 8Gurriel Jr. homered to left (415 feet), Naylor scored.6–1
- 7Tawa homered to left center (414 feet).4–1
- 6Smith homered to center (429 feet).3–1
- 5Carroll singled to center, Moreno scored, Carroll to second, Thomas thrown out at third.2–1
- 4Mervis homered to right center (396 feet).1–1
- 2Naylor homered to center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML ARI -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +43 Elo | ARI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 4th of 301531 | Elo rating | 146326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–6 MIA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.