Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Matt MervisBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe singled to right, Call scored.4–11
- 8Conine singled to right, Stowers scored, Hill to third.3–11
- 8Stowers doubled to right, Edwards scored and Lopez scored.3–10
- 8Lopez doubled to center, Hicks scored, Edwards to third.3–8
- 7Mervis homered to center (411 feet), Stowers scored and Hill scored.3–7
- 6Hicks hit sacrifice fly to center, Conine scored, Sanoja to third.3–4
- 4Sanoja singled to center, Wagaman scored, Bride to second.3–3
- 4Bride reached on infield single to pitcher, Stowers scored, Wagaman to third.3–2
- 4Call singled to left, DeJong scored, Call to second, Young to third.3–1
- 4DeJong singled to left, Rosario scored.2–1
- 2Conine singled to center, Wagaman scored.1–1
- 2Young singled to left, García Jr. scored, Rosario to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML WSH -155 / MIA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −16 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +7 Elo | WSH 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.920th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 5–418th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 30 |
| 24th of 301471 | Elo rating | 146326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–6 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 14–14 MIA in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.