Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Connor GillispiePitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pauley hit sacrifice fly to center, Conine scored.10–4
- 7Edwards singled to left, Hicks scored, Pauley to second.10–3
- 7Hicks doubled to left, Conine scored.10–2
- 6Carroll homered to right center (434 feet), Suárez scored, Moreno scored and Hampson scored.10–1
- 6Moreno singled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored, Suárez to second.6–1
- 3Naylor homered to right (373 feet).5–1
- 2Hicks grounded out to pitcher, Lopez scored.4–1
- 2Perdomo homered to right (397 feet), Hampson scored and Carroll scored.4–0
- 2Carroll doubled to right, Thomas scored, Hampson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 60%
- ML ARI -165 / MIA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −7 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Connor Gillispie: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +59 Elo | ARI 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 6–416th of 30 |
| 4th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 6th of 301529 | Elo rating | 146625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–9 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–6 MIA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.