Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. walked, Heyward scored, Wade to second, Sheets to third.2–4
- 8Crow-Armstrong homered to right (370 feet).2–3
- 7Machado doubled to left, Wade scored.1–3
- 3Machado singled to left, Wade scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1–2
- 3Tatis Jr. reached on infield single to second, Díaz scored, Wade to second.1–1
- 3Tucker hit sacrifice fly to left, Kelly scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML CHC -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- SD: Elo 55.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- CHC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +38 Elo | SD 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 2.71st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–4 | Road vs home | 11–11st of 30 |
| 1st of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301531 | Elo rating | 15492nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 13–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 8–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–6 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–9 SD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.