Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Happ singled to right, Bruján scored.10–11
- 9Amaya homered to center (388 feet).10–10
- 8Tucker homered to right (383 feet), Happ scored.10–9
- 7Smith doubled to left, Freeman scored.10–7
- 7Edman hit sacrifice fly to right, T. Hernández scored, Freeman to third.9–7
- 7Freeman doubled to left, Ohtani scored and Betts scored, T. Hernández to third.8–7
- 7T. Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to third, Pages scored, Betts to second, Ohtani safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Workman.6–7
- 6Smith homered to left center (419 feet).5–7
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (398 feet), Swanson scored.4–7
- 2Pages homered to left center (418 feet).4–5
- 1Amaya singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored.3–5
- 1Crow-Armstrong doubled to left, Swanson scored.3–4
- 1Swanson tripled to left, Suzuki scored.3–3
- 1Suzuki doubled to left, Happ scored and Tucker scored.3–2
- 1Edman homered to center (417 feet), Ohtani scored and T. Hernández scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / CHC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +16 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 6–311th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15281st of 30 |
| 1st of 301559 | Elo rating | 15335th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–12 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–9 CHC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.