Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jacob StallingsBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman singled to left, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.2–6
- 4Stallings doubled to left, McMahon scored and Moniak scored.2–5
- 3Taylor singled to left, Edman scored, Muncy to second.0–5
- 3Smith homered to left (370 feet), Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.0–4
- 2Taylor grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Conforto scored, Muncy out at second, Edman to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML COL +250 / LAD -310
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 69.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -265
- COL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −7 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +140 Elo | LAD 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.7 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.9 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 8–26th of 30 |
| 4th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 15108th of 30 |
| 29th of 301425 | Elo rating | 15561st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–11 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–21 LAD in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 27.