Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Goodman homered to center (402 feet), Moniak scored.3–5
- 6Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Ohtani scored.1–5
- 6Farmer doubled to left, Martini scored.1–4
- 5Smith singled to left, Betts scored.0–4
- 3Ohtani homered to center (408 feet).0–3
- 1Betts homered to left center (397 feet), Ohtani scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 75%
- ML COL +285 / LAD -360
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 73.5%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -301
- COL +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +12 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +177 Elo | LAD 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 73.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.7 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.9 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 7–26th of 30 |
| 7th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15144th of 30 |
| 29th of 301426 | Elo rating | 15551st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–11 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 3–9 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–20 LAD in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 26.