Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4
- Jacob deGromPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Taylor scored.3–0
- 9T. Hernández singled to right, Edman scored, Taylor to second.2–0
- 1Edman homered to right center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML LAD -125 / TEX +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.9 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +12 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 1st of 301558 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–3 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.