Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Caleb BoushleyPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger singled to left, Jung scored.2–9
- 7Tellez doubled to center, Raleigh scored and Raley scored, Tellez out stretching at third.1–9
- 7Raley reached on infield single to second, Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.1–7
- 5Raleigh homered to center (420 feet).1–5
- 3Raley doubled to left, Arozarena scored.1–4
- 3Raleigh scored, Arozarena to third on passed ball by Heim.1–4
- 3Raleigh scored, Arozarena to third on passed ball by Heim.1–4
- 3Polanco hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.1–2
- 3Rodríguez tripled to left, Crawford scored.1–1
- 1Smith singled to center, Semien scored, Seager to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML TEX +120 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- TEX +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +2 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +53 Elo | SEA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.523rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 6–521st of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–9 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–15 SEA in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 27.