Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raleigh homered to right center (399 feet), Moore scored.3–5
- 6Jung homered to right (343 feet), Smith scored.3–3
- 4Crawford singled to left, Rivas scored.1–3
- 4Jung singled to right, A. García scored.1–2
- 2Tellez homered to right (363 feet).0–2
- 1Polanco homered to right (384 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -120 / SEA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 45.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.3 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +11 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +32 Elo | SEA 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 5–521st of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–14 SEA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 26.