Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Ryan BlissBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Polanco singled to center, Moore scored and Mastrobuoni scored.3–4
- 8Altuve scored on error and Meyers scored, Walker safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Moore, Alvarez to second.3–2
- 6Altuve homered to left center (402 feet).1–2
- 5Bliss homered to left center (387 feet), Moore scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML HOU +140 / SEA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- HOU +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +1 | HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 3.227th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–422nd of 29 |
| 9th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 148924th of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–6 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–17 SEA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 26.