San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wade Jr. homered to right (364 feet).6–3
- 5Alvarez singled to right, Altuve scored and McCormick scored, Paredes to third.5–3
- 2Dezenzo singled to center, Peña scored, Rodgers to second.5–1
- 2Ramos doubled to left, Fitzgerald scored and Yastrzemski scored.5–0
- 2Matos homered to center (395 feet).3–0
- 1Flores homered to left (386 feet), Adames scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML SF +145 / HOU -175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -156
- SF +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +18 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +51 Elo | HOU 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 1.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 3.06th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −1.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 194–1 | Road vs home | 2–313th of 19 |
| 15th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 151610th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15246th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–2 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.