San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Altuve homered to left (356 feet).3–1
- 4Ramos homered to left (364 feet).3–0
- 3Adames doubled to left, Koss scored and Bailey scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 55%
- ML SF -135 / HOU +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- SF: Elo 47.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −18 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 2.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 3.06th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −1.019th of 30 |
| 3rd of 193–1 | Road vs home | 2–211th of 19 |
| 16th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15198th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  SF |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–80 | 81–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–51 | 51–64 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders | 84–73–1 | 68–89–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–2 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.