San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman singled to center, Adames scored and Lee scored.7–2
- 8Paredes doubled to center, Altuve scored and Smith scored.5–2
- 6Flores homered to left (350 feet), Lee scored and Bailey scored.5–0
- 5Wade Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Yastrzemski scored.2–0
- 2Flores singled to left, Ramos scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML SF +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +56 Elo | HOU 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 2.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 1.72nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 182–1 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 18 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15256th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  SF |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–80 | 81–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–51 | 51–64 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders | 84–73–1 | 68–89–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–2 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.