Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis F. CastilloPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Adames singled to right, Matos scored and Fitzgerald scored.9–10
- 11Raley scored on Bivens wild pitch, Crawford to second on wild pitch by Bivens, Mastrobuoni to third on wild pitch by Bivens.9–8
- 11Raley scored on Bivens wild pitch, Crawford to second on wild pitch by Bivens, Mastrobuoni to third on wild pitch by Bivens.9–8
- 6Bailey grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ramos scored, Yastrzemski out at second.8–8
- 6Chapman homered to left center (411 feet).8–7
- 6Polanco reached on infield single to second, Raleigh scored.8–6
- 6Raleigh grounded into fielder's choice to second, Robles scored on fielding error by second baseman Fitzgerald and Rodríguez scored on error, Raleigh second.7–6
- 5Adames doubled to left, Wade Jr. scored.5–6
- 5Polanco homered to right (387 feet), Raleigh scored.5–5
- 4Ramos singled to right, Lee scored, Chapman to third.3–5
- 4Lee singled to center, Adames scored.3–4
- 3Polanco singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to second, Raleigh to third.3–3
- 3Arozarena walked, Crawford scored, Raleigh to second, Rodríguez to third.2–3
- 2Wade Jr. doubled to right, Flores scored and Bailey scored, Fitzgerald to third.1–3
- 1Chapman reached on infield single to second, Wade Jr. scored.1–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to right center (390 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML SEA +135 / SF -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- SF: Elo 51.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -145
- SEA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −9 | SEA: Luis F. Castillo (no track record yet) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +8 Elo | SF 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 302.6 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 2.73rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.6 | Margin | +2.35th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 150815th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–5 | 6–0 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 6–0 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–6 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–6 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–2 SF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.