Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos VargasPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to left (358 feet), Rodríguez scored.9–6
- 7Malloy reached on infield single to third, Dingler scored, Báez to second.9–4
- 5Polanco singled to right, Rodríguez scored.8–4
- 4Raley homered to right (358 feet).8–3
- 4Dingler singled to right, Keith scored.8–2
- 3Rodríguez grounded out to third, Crawford scored.7–2
- 3Carpenter doubled to center, Malloy scored.7–1
- 2Arozarena homered to left center (389 feet).6–1
- 1Báez doubled to left, Dingler scored and Sweeney scored.6–0
- 1Sweeney singled to center, Keith scored, Dingler to third.4–0
- 1Dingler singled to left, Torkelson scored, Keith to third.3–0
- 1Greene homered to left (377 feet).2–0
- 1Carpenter singled to right, Malloy scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML DET -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −10 | DET: Jackson Jobe (no track record yet) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +29 Elo | SEA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 306.7 | Runs allowed | 3.511th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −1.522nd of 30 |
| 13th of 180–3 | Road vs home | 2–211th of 18 |
| 1st of 301561 | Opponent Elo | 146026th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 151911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–76 | 68–91 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–41 | 42–69 |
| Underdog | 63–35 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 83–85 | 78–79–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–4 SEA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.