Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Victor RoblesBatting1-4
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Greene homered to left center (371 feet).4–1
- 7Tellez hit sacrifice fly to left, Arozarena scored.3–1
- 3Torkelson doubled to right, McKinstry scored.3–0
- 1Keith singled to left, Carpenter scored, Keith to second.2–0
- 1Carpenter singled to right, Greene scored, Carpenter to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML DET +135 / SEA -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -145
- DET +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +2 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +37 Elo | SEA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 2.825th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.824th of 30 |
| 12th of 191–3 | Road vs home | 2–313th of 19 |
| 1st of 301552 | Opponent Elo | 146625th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 151711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–76 | 68–91 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–41 | 42–69 |
| Underdog | 63–35 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 83–85 | 78–79–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–4 SEA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.