Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Trey SweeneyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Greene grounded out to third, Kreidler scored, McKinstry to second.2–3
- 5Sweeney homered to right center (378 feet).1–3
- 4Moore homered to right (348 feet).0–3
- 2Robles doubled to center, Crawford scored and Moore scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML DET -130 / SEA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- DET: Elo 48.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.4 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −1 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +12 Elo | SEA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 2.527th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −2.026th of 30 |
| 9th of 192–3 | Road vs home | 2–414th of 19 |
| 2nd of 301545 | Opponent Elo | 147024th of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–2 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | — | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–4 SEA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.