Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Twins- Jose MirandaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Correa reached on infield single to pitcher, Wallner scored on throwing error by pitcher Scott.1–6
- 4Wallner doubled to right, Vázquez scored.1–5
- 4Miranda homered to left center (389 feet), Larnach scored and Julien scored.1–4
- 4France singled to left, Buxton scored on fielding error by left fielder Altuve, Larnach to second.1–1
- 1Altuve homered to left (359 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML HOU +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.4 | Runs scored | 3.125th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.325th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −2.128th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 29 |
| 9th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 146428th of 30 |
| 10th of 301523 | Elo rating | 148923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–9 MIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.