Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Harrison BaderBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Nick MatonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Keirsey Jr. scored and Buxton scored.8–3
- 6Castro scored and France scored, Julien to third.5–3
- 6Jeffers scored, Castro to second, France to third.3–3
- 6Larnach scored, Jeffers to second.2–3
- 6Buxton scored, Larnach to second.1–3
- 5Nick Maton homers (406 feet) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
- 4Benintendi scored, Sosa to third.0–2
- 2Benintendi scored, Sosa to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML MIN -165 / CHW +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 3.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +45 Elo | MIN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 301.5 | Runs scored | 4.813th of 30 |
| 29th of 307.0 | Runs allowed | 1.31st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−5.5 | Margin | +3.52nd of 30 |
| 16th of 190–4 | Road vs home | 2–211th of 19 |
| 24th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 145728th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301486 | Elo rating | 141830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–86 | 74–87 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–66 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 68–83 |
| Overs–unders | 85–76 | 70–90–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 21–6 CHW in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 27.