Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-2
- Chris PaddackPitching3.1 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 3Taylor homered to center (411 feet), Thaiss scored.0–9
- 2Benintendi homered to right (401 feet), Amaya scored and Vargas scored.0–7
- 2Robert Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.0–4
- 1Vaughn homered to left center (371 feet), Vargas scored and Robert Jr. scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML MIN -190 / CHW +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 3.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +55 Elo | MIN 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 302.0 | Runs scored | 3.318th of 30 |
| 27th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 1.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−4.3 | Margin | +1.76th of 30 |
| 12th of 150–3 | Road vs home | 1–212th of 15 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 144628th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 141430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–86 | 74–87 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–66 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 68–83 |
| Overs–unders | 85–76 | 70–90–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 21–5 CHW in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 26.