Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado homered to left (376 feet).3–5
- 6Castro doubled to center, Larnach scored, Jeffers to third.3–4
- 5Bader homered to left (394 feet), Miranda scored.2–4
- 3Herrera singled to right, Donovan scored.0–4
- 2Nootbaar homered to right (414 feet), Walker scored.0–3
- 1Donovan reached on infield single to shortstop, Nootbaar scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +22 Elo | STL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 3039–42 | Road vs home | 43–3716th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–86 | 82–79 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–66 | 24–48 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 58–31 |
| Overs–unders | 85–76 | 75–84–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–3 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.