Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4
- Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-2
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moncada reached on infield single to pitcher, Soler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 59%
- ML LAA -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 53.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +6 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +21 Elo | LAA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.930th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3031–50 | Road vs home | 23–5830th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 28th of 301444 | Elo rating | 141630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LAA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 74–87 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–28 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 71–55 | 68–83 |
| Overs–unders | 76–85 | 70–90–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–8 CHW in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.