Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Kyren ParisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Nick MatonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paris homered to left center (397 feet).3–2
- 1Thaiss singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.2–2
- 1Maton homered to center (399 feet).2–1
- 1Moncada grounded into fielder's choice to second, Schanuel scored, Trout out at second.2–0
- 1Soler hit sacrifice fly to center, Ward scored, Schanuel to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML LAA -125 / CHW +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 52.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +20 Elo | LAA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.930th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3031–50 | Road vs home | 23–5830th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 28th of 301445 | Elo rating | 141530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LAA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 74–87 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–28 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 71–55 | 68–83 |
| Overs–unders | 76–85 | 70–90–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–8 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.