Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Baldwin homered to center (401 feet).6–1
- 5France doubled to left, Buxton scored.6–0
- 5Buxton doubled to right, Correa scored.5–0
- 4Bader homered to left (355 feet), France scored and Castro scored.4–0
- 1Buxton homered to left center (446 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML MIN -190 / CHW +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 3.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +21 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +33 Elo | MIN 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 2.64th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−3.4 | Margin | +1.89th of 30 |
| 15th of 191–4 | Road vs home | 2–313th of 19 |
| 26th of 301466 | Opponent Elo | 146327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301488 | Elo rating | 141530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | — |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 22–6 CHW in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 28.