Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rodgers doubled to left, Caratini scored.5–2
- 4Rodgers singled to center, Walker scored and Caratini scored.4–2
- 2Peña homered to left (391 feet).2–2
- 2Walker homered to left (402 feet).1–2
- 1Larnach singled to left, Buxton scored.0–2
- 1Correa grounded out to shortstop, Wallner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML HOU +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +14 Elo | HOU 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.0 | Runs scored | 3.322nd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.5 | Margin | −2.025th of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 145627th of 30 |
| 10th of 301521 | Elo rating | 149123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–5 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–9 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.
- Jul 7HOU 2 @ MIN 3Picked MIN 57%Hit
- Jul 6HOU 3 @ MIN 9Picked MIN 55%Hit
- Jul 5HOU 13 @ MIN 12Picked MIN 55%Miss
- Jun 2MIN 4 @ HOU 3Picked HOU 58%Miss
- Jun 1MIN 2 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 52%Hit
- May 31MIN 6 @ HOU 1Picked HOU 51%Miss
- Oct 11HOU 3 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked MIN 52%Miss
- Oct 10HOU 9 @ MIN 1PlayoffsPicked MIN 53%Miss