Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis ContrerasPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting4-5
- Chris PaddackPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Meyers stole home, Altuve stole second.9–7
- 10Meyers stole home, Altuve stole second.9–7
- 10Altuve singled to left, Rodgers scored, Meyers to third.8–7
- 9Alvarez homered to right center (418 feet), Paredes scored.7–7
- 6Paredes singled to center, Rodgers scored, Meyers to third.5–7
- 5Peña lined out to left, Altuve scored.4–7
- 5Paredes singled to left, Meyers scored, Altuve to second.3–7
- 5Dezenzo scored on error, Altuve safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Castro.2–7
- 4Larnach doubled to right, Buxton scored and Correa scored.1–7
- 4Buxton doubled to right, Wallner scored, Correa to third.1–5
- 2Correa singled to left, Gasper scored, Bader to third.1–4
- 1Jeffers doubled to right, Castro scored and Correa scored.1–3
- 1Larnach hit sacrifice fly to right, Wallner scored.1–1
- 1Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to left, Altuve scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML HOU -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.3 | Runs scored | 3.523rd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 29 |
| 7th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 147028th of 30 |
| 10th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–6 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–10 MIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.