Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Flores singled to right, Matos scored.4–5
- 9Arozarena doubled to left, Robles scored, Raleigh to third.4–4
- 6Bliss singled to left, Raley scored, Bliss to second, Moore to second, Moore safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Matos.3–4
- 4Yastrzemski homered to left center (379 feet), Lee scored and Ramos scored.2–4
- 4Ramos singled to right, Adames scored, Lee to second.2–1
- 3Raleigh homered to right (347 feet).2–0
- 1Rodríguez homered to left center (423 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SEA +100 / SF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SF: Elo 51.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +11 Elo | SF 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 5.55th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.36th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +2.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 25th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 150811th of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–6 | 7–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 7–1 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–4 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.