Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Caratini singled to left, Rodgers scored.2–1
- 7Raley reached on infield single to second, Garver scored.1–1
- 7Smith tripled to left, Diaz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML HOU +100 / SEA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | 0 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 3.325th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 30 |
| 9th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301521 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–18 SEA in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 27.