Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Luis F. CastilloPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena walked, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second, Garver to third.6–7
- 9Rodríguez doubled to right, Solano scored and Mastrobuoni scored, Crawford to third.6–6
- 9Peña scored on Lawrence wild pitch.6–4
- 9Peña scored on Lawrence wild pitch.6–4
- 8Arozarena homered to left (384 feet), Mastrobuoni scored, Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored.5–4
- 8Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.5–0
- 3Rodgers walked, Walker scored, Caratini to second, Peña to third.4–0
- 2Altuve reached on infield single to third, Meyers scored, Smith to second.3–0
- 2Smith singled to right, Caratini scored, Meyers to third.2–0
- 2Meyers singled to right, Peña scored, Caratini to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -145 / SEA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- SEA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −24 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis F. Castillo: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +19 Elo | HOU 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.325th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301522 | Elo rating | 151113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–6 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 10–18 SEA in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 28.