Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Seager homered to center (427 feet).3–5
- 5Rengifo singled to left, Schanuel scored and Tim Anderson scored, Ward to second.3–4
- 3A. García homered to left center (382 feet).1–4
- 2Taveras doubled to right, Harris scored and Burger scored, Higashioka thrown out at home.1–3
- 1A. García hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored, Seager to second.1–1
- 1Soler singled to left, Ward scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML LAA +130 / TEX -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −21 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +51 Elo | TEX 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.227th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 28th of 301451 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–18 TEX in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 28.