Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes homered to left center (363 feet).4–1
- 5Ward homered to right (352 feet).4–0
- 4Schanuel homered to right (383 feet).3–0
- 1Trout singled to center, Ward scored and Rengifo scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML LAA +140 / HOU -165
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ryan Gusto (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +84 Elo | HOU 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.911th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Road vs home | 3–427th of 30 |
| 27th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 30 |
| 28th of 301453 | Elo rating | 15249th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–6 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–19 HOU in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 27.