Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Kyren ParisBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paris homered to right center (367 feet).4–5
- 7Díaz homered to right (327 feet).3–5
- 5Soler homered to right (356 feet).3–4
- 4Ward homered to right (349 feet).2–4
- 2Paris homered to right center (375 feet).1–4
- 1Caballero homered to right (327 feet), Caminero scored, Mead scored and Jansen scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML LAA +130 / TB -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- TB: Elo 61.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +6 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +84 Elo | TB 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.719th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 30 |
| 29th of 301471 | Opponent Elo | 146530th of 30 |
| 28th of 301453 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–8 TB in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.