Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell doubled to left, Paris scored.8–6
- 9O'Hoppe homered to center (392 feet).8–5
- 9Ramírez homered to right center (408 feet).8–4
- 7Manzardo hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored.7–4
- 6Rocchio singled to left, Manzardo scored and Naylor scored, Arias to third.6–4
- 5Ramírez homered to right (394 feet), Kwan scored.4–4
- 3Adell singled to center, Moncada scored and Schanuel scored, Rengifo to second.2–4
- 3Schanuel singled to center, Trout scored, Moncada to second.2–2
- 2Rocchio doubled to center, Arias scored, Rocchio to third.2–1
- 1Trout homered to center (387 feet).1–1
- 1Ramírez homered to right center (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML CLE -110 / LAA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- LAA: Elo 48.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +19 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.013th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.5 | Margin | −1.522nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 145530th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 144728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | — | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–5 LAA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.