Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Scott II hit sacrifice fly to right, Pagés scored.5–4
- 10Trout sacrificed into double play, center to center to shortstop to second, Paris scored, Schanuel thrown out at second, Ward to third.5–3
- 10Schanuel grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rengifo scored, Ward to second, Paris to third.4–3
- 7Paris tripled to left, Rengifo scored.3–3
- 6Trout hit sacrifice fly to center, Ward scored.2–3
- 5Arenado singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Arenado thrown out at second, Baker to third.1–3
- 3Ward hit sacrifice fly to right, Paris scored.1–2
- 2Donovan homered to right center (384 feet).0–2
- 1Nootbaar homered to right (365 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML LAA +140 / STL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- STL: Elo 60.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +71 Elo | STL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 301.7 | Runs scored | 6.34th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 2.04th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.7 | Margin | +4.32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 182–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 18 |
| 30th of 301418 | Opponent Elo | 148622nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301446 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LAA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 82–79 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–28 | 24–48 |
| Underdog | 71–55 | 58–31 |
| Overs–unders | 76–85 | 75–84–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.