Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Scott II singled to right, Herrera scored.9–7
- 11Moncada doubled to left, Paris scored and Trout scored.9–6
- 11Paris singled to right, Tim Anderson scored, Trout to third.7–6
- 10Arenado singled to right, Siani scored, Donovan to third.6–6
- 10Baker doubled to left, Scott II scored and Winn scored.6–5
- 10Adell singled to left, Schanuel scored.6–3
- 10Schanuel tripled to center, Paris scored and Moncada scored.5–3
- 8Nootbaar scored on error, Arenado safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Schanuel, Arenado safe at second on error.3–3
- 4Walker homered to center (419 feet).3–2
- 3Trout doubled to left, Rengifo scored and Ward scored.3–1
- 3Rengifo doubled to left, Tim Anderson scored, Ward to third.1–1
- 2Walker singled to center, Gorman scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML LAA +120 / STL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- STL: Elo 57.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +50 Elo | STL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 302.5 | Runs scored | 5.87th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 2.84th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +3.03rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 193–1 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 19 |
| 30th of 301436 | Opponent Elo | 147824th of 30 |
| 28th of 301447 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LAA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 82–79 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–28 | 24–48 |
| Underdog | 71–55 | 58–31 |
| Overs–unders | 76–85 | 75–84–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–2 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.