Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting3-4, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Herrera homered to left (425 feet), Burleson scored and Arenado scored.5–12
- 8Arenado singled to left, Contreras scored and Winn scored, Burleson to second.5–9
- 8Burleson walked, Scott II scored, Contreras to second, Winn to third.5–7
- 8Contreras walked, Walker scored, Winn to second, Scott II to third.5–6
- 7Contreras doubled to left, Nootbaar scored on throwing error by shortstop Lopez and Winn scored, Contreras to third.5–5
- 7O'Hoppe homered to center (404 feet), Soler scored, Moncada scored and Schanuel scored.5–3
- 6Herrera homered to left (414 feet), Arenado scored.1–3
- 4Herrera homered to left (395 feet).1–1
- 1Trout homered to center (413 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML LAA +115 / STL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- STL: Elo 60.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +6 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +72 Elo | STL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 6.06th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +2.07th of 30 |
| 2nd of 194–1 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 19 |
| 30th of 301448 | Opponent Elo | 147324th of 30 |
| 28th of 301449 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–2 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.