Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jones grounded out to pitcher, Santana scored, Manzardo to third.4–10
- 5Ward singled to left, Tim Anderson scored.3–10
- 5Tim Anderson doubled to left, Adell scored and Schanuel scored.3–9
- 5O'Hoppe homered to center (396 feet), Soler scored.3–7
- 5Trout homered to center (429 feet), Rengifo scored.3–5
- 3Santana grounded out to shortstop, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.3–3
- 3Naylor homered to center (401 feet).2–3
- 1Soler homered to center (408 feet), Trout scored.1–3
- 1Rengifo homered to right (402 feet).1–1
- 1Santana homered to center (415 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML CLE -155 / LAA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +47 Elo | CLE 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.625th of 30 |
| 14th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
| 11th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 146130th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 144528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–5 LAA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.