Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Kyren ParisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rengifo singled to center, Newman scored.4–3
- 8d'Arnaud grounded out to shortstop, Rengifo scored.3–3
- 7Misner tripled to center, Morel scored.2–3
- 7Morel doubled to center, Aranda scored on error, Morel safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Tim Anderson.2–2
- 7Caminero homered to right center (375 feet).2–1
- 2Paris homered to center (395 feet), Schanuel scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML LAA +140 / TB -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TB: Elo 61.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +14 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +84 Elo | TB 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.819th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.13rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.710th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304–2 | Road vs home | 4–212th of 30 |
| 29th of 301468 | Opponent Elo | 146730th of 30 |
| 28th of 301451 | Elo rating | 150315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–8 TB in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.