Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paris homered to center (434 feet).2–6
- 7Soler hit sacrifice fly to center, Tim Anderson scored, Ward to third.2–5
- 7Rengifo hit sacrifice fly to center, Adell scored, Ward to second, Tim Anderson to third.2–4
- 6Soler homered to left (397 feet).2–3
- 4Manzardo homered to right (383 feet).2–2
- 2Tim Anderson singled to left, Paris scored on error, Tim Anderson safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.1–2
- 2O'Hoppe homered to left center (391 feet).1–1
- 1Thomas hit sacrifice fly to left, Ramírez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML CLE -110 / LAA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- LAA: Elo 44.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −7 | CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +42 Elo | CLE 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.627th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 14th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 29 |
| 13th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 146630th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 144928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–6 LAA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.